Budget deal or no, Moody's isn't satisfied

Legislators are working toward an inadequate plan that leaves Illinois with fixed costs—especially to fund pensions—that could become "extremely difficult to manage," the ratings agency says.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180531/BLOGS02/180539960/budget-deal-or-no-moodys-isnt-satisfied?utm_source=BLOGS02&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Former Hyatt Center filling gaps

The Loop office tower that lost the hotel company's headquarters last year has a big gap to fill, but is plugging holes.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180531/CRED03/180539962/former-hyatt-center-filling-gaps?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

New from Tyson: Protein crisps

Yappahs are a light, puff-like take on a traditional Southeast Asian shrimp cracker, made from brewers' spent grain and vegetable pulp from juice stores.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180531/NEWS07/180539964/new-from-tyson-protein-crisps?utm_source=NEWS07&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Trump might commute Blagojevich's prison sentence

If the president follows through, the ex-governor could get out early from serving a 14-year sentence on charges tied to the selling of President Obama's former Senate seat.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180531/NEWS02/180539966/trump-might-commute-blagojevichs-prison-sentence?utm_source=NEWS02&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Newmark to buy RKF

Both brokerages have Chicago offices.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180531/CRED03/180539967/newmark-to-buy-rkf?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

LinkedIn exec, others join Outcome Health board

Remaking the board is part of the settlement of a lawsuit filed by investors.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180531/BLOGS11/180539972/linkedin-exec-others-join-outcome-health-board?utm_source=BLOGS11&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

What Everyone Has Gotten Wrong About Family Separation

Secretary of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen took a fair amount of flak at a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (HSGAC) hearing earlier this month from Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) over the administration’s policy of separating children from their parents at the border. While Nielsen defended the policy as lawful, Harris attacked it for being unsafe and improperly abused.

In part, they are both right. There has always been a policy of separating children from parents at the border when the adults are facing criminal charges but—and it’s a big caveat—the current administration is manipulating and exploiting—and indirectly expanding—that policy to deter migration.

To be perfectly clear, the U.S. has had a long-standing policy of family separation during criminal prosecutions. Another related long-standing policy is  prosecuting illegal entry. What has changed, however, is Attorney General Jeff Sessions’s recent announcement of the “zero tolerance” policy means many more parents will be subject to criminal prosecutions if they did not attempt to cross at a port of entry, instead of merely sending them back to Mexico. That applies even if the parent is trying to go through the legal asylum process.  

Despite justifying the new policy by reference to supposed rampant illegal immigration,  even as it ramps up enforcement and broadens its web for criminal prosecutions of migrants, the administration is lagging behind its predecessor with regard to criminal prosecutions for entry because illegal border crossing attempts are way down. According to a report by the Transaction Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) on the most recent DOJ data, compared to five years ago where there were 53,822 criminal prosecutions under 8 U.S.C. §1325 (entry of alien at improper time or place), the estimate for FY18 is down 32 percent.

When an individual is charged with crossing the border at the wrong place, any accompanying children are usually placed in the custody of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). This policy was initially put in place to make sure that traffickers would not maintain custody of accompanying children they might be smuggling.  But there are other alternatives when trafficking is not a risk. Those alternatives, like family detention or bond, are often used for families claiming asylum

The problem with the Trump administration’s new policy is that not only that are they ignoring alternatives, but also that they are increasing the use of separation and care under HHS—generally considered the most severe option—for people who are trying to follow the legal process

Anecdotes about an uptick in family separations began after President Trump was inaugurated, but has gained momentum in recent months, particularly in light of the caravans of asylum seekers arriving at the border.

Clearly, the impact of the policy is most problematic as it applies to families claiming asylum, or who are illegally present in the U.S. (a civil offense). Whereas placing children with HHS was previously an option, it now looks like the default choice.  

The administration is effectively removing discretion from federal law enforcement officials, prosecutors, and immigration judges who previously considered legitimate factors to determine whether a child ought to be removed from the custody of a parent, or whether the interests of the child and family were better served in a family detention facility, for example.

Also alarming is that these separations are done without any hearing or notice. In a recent case documented by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), a mother and daughter from the Congo presented themselves at the border and passed their initial credible fear interview. They were detained together for four days, when without notice, the 6-year-old child was taken from her mother—screaming, crying, and pleading—and placed alone in a detention facility across the country for four months, during which time she spoke to her mother only six times on the phone.

Without a hearing, it is impossible to accurately assess what is in the best interests of a child encountered with a family member, or whether the government has a legitimate interest in separating a child from a parent. Without notice, it is impossible to try to explain to a child what is happening to reduce potential trauma, or to contact relatives who may be able to take custody of the child as an alternative to placement in HHS custody.

A dangerous problem with HHS custody is that it not a safe place for children. Shockingly, a 2016 HSGAC report found that HHS inadvertently placed children in the custody of human traffickers over a dozen times, some of those times involving traffickers who kept the children as slave laborers. The scope of the entire problem is hard to quantify, because, as the report notes, no one really keeps track of the children placed in custody, consistently vets the sponsors with whom they are placed (including approving sponsors who can and do easily leave the country), or follows up with children post-release. However, according to Sec. Nielsen’s testimony, the departments are working to rectify this oversight.

Relatedly, there is evidence that suggest that separating children—particularly children under 4 years of age—is extraordinarily traumatic for the child and can cause irreparable harm, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Even if you are not moved by the gross incompetence of the federal government to protect children in their custody, everyone should recognize that this policy is not appropriate to address illegal immigration or with enforcing our border security, and it is a huge drain on resources.

The bottom line is that enforcing our laws and treating human beings the right way are not mutually exclusive, unless we let them become so. Remember, most of the families crossing the border are doing so out of desperation—they are not violent criminals. They face death, violence, and hunger in their home countries. If they cross illegally, they can be returned. But intentionally inflicting more emotional distress is not in the legitimate interest of the nation and is downright inhumane.

The post What Everyone Has Gotten Wrong About Family Separation appeared first on Niskanen Center.

from nicholemhearn digest https://niskanencenter.org/blog/what-everyone-has-gotten-wrong-about-family-separation/

Home-repair grants aim to slow gentrification near 606

Aldermen and the mayor have rolled out a plan to make forgivable grants of up to $25,000 as an ounce of prevention against rapid gentrification.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180531/CRED0701/180539975/home-repair-grants-aim-to-slow-gentrification-near-606?utm_source=CRED0701&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

The inevitable success of a small-town Wisconsin teen

Jason VandeBoom had been running his software company for a decade when he shifted his business model. His rising sales and growing staff confirm it was the smart thing to do.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180531/ISSUE01/180539999/the-inevitable-success-of-a-small-town-wisconsin-teen?utm_source=ISSUE01&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Think Illinois has the country's toughest gun laws? Think again

This state's own gun shops sell 40 percent of the firearms used in crimes in Chicago, yet the businesses are largely unregulated. That needs to change.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180531/OPINION/180539977/think-illinois-has-the-countrys-toughest-gun-laws-think-again?utm_source=OPINION&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Sears to close about 100 more stores

Of those, 72 will begin closing sales soon, the retailer said this morning.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180531/NEWS07/180539974/sears-to-close-about-100-more-stores?utm_source=NEWS07&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Defamation suit amps up court spat over River North sites

Plans for a nine-story office building and 199-room hotel are tied up in a dispute that has resulted in at least five lawsuits in nearly two years.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180530/CRED03/180539987/defamation-suit-amps-up-court-spat-over-river-north-sites?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Podcast: Samuel Hammond on Welfare Reform and Social Insurance

Niskanen’s Sam Hammond joins the Mercatus Center’s David Beckworth on the Macro Musings podcast to discuss his most recent paper, The Free Market Welfare State: Preserving Dynamism in a Volatile World,” along with some of his other research.

Also on this episode of Macro Musings: Sam and David also discuss the repercussions of the China shock, how to reform America’s welfare system, and the design characteristics that would define an ideal social insurance state.

Listen to the full episode below.

Related Links:

“The Free-Market Welfare State: Preserving Dynamism in a Volatile World” by Sam Hammond

“From Tiananmen to Outsourcing: the Effect of Rising Import Competition on Congressional Voting Towards China” by John Seungmin Kuk, Deborah Seligsohn, & Jiakun Jack Zhang

“Populism and the Economics of Globalization” by Dani Rodrik

“Food Stamp Entrepreneurs” by Gareth Olds

“If You Want to Rebuild Civil Society, Don’t Abolish Welfare – Decentralize it” by Sam Hammond

“Diversity and Crowd-Out: A Theory of Cold-glow Giving” by Daniel M. Hungerman

“It Takes a Nation” by Rebecca Blank

“Filthy Lucre: Economics for People Who Hate Capitalism” by Joseph Heath

The post Podcast: Samuel Hammond on Welfare Reform and Social Insurance appeared first on Niskanen Center.

from nicholemhearn digest https://niskanencenter.org/blog/podcast-samuel-hammond-on-welfare-reform-and-social-insurance/

New Gold Coast mansion: Yours for $7.25 million

Designed to look as if it's been there for a century, the all-new limestone-fronted home will compete against vintage mansions lingering on the market.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180530/CRED0701/180539989/new-gold-coast-mansion-yours-for-7-25-million?utm_source=CRED0701&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

City looks to cash in on South Loop police lot

The 2.4-acre property is being marketed as a potential development site.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180530/CRED03/180539990/city-looks-to-cash-in-on-south-loop-police-lot?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Sanofi to Roseanne: Racism not among Ambien's many side effects

The drugmaker responded after Roseanne Barr blamed “Ambien tweeting” for a racial slur against former Obama adviser and current University of Chicago law professor Valerie Jarrett.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180530/NEWS03/180539993/sanofi-to-roseanne-racism-not-among-ambiens-many-side-effects?utm_source=NEWS03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

U.S. real estate lending bucks global trend

“There is ample equity out there and our view is that that will continue,” CBRE's global chief economist said in a report.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180530/CRED03/180539994/u-s-real-estate-lending-bucks-global-trend?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Modern in Ukrainian Village

An open-plan main floor, five bedrooms and plenty of outdoor spaces, some of them planted "with a modern Zen garden feel." It's for sale for just under $1.18 million. Take a photo tour.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180530/CRED0703/180539997/modern-in-ukrainian-village?utm_source=CRED0703&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

How the Fifth Third-MB deal could backfire

Retaining commercial lenders will be a critical challenge for Fifth Third as it absorbs MB Financial. And frustrated loan officers have plenty of alternatives in Chicago.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180530/BLOGS10/180539996/how-the-fifth-third-mb-deal-could-backfire?utm_source=BLOGS10&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

How one Chicago tech firm is out-recruiting the Big Four

Ocient is finding its proximity to one of the nation's top computer science programs helps in bringing in talent.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180530/BLOGS11/180539998/how-one-chicago-tech-firm-is-out-recruiting-the-big-four?utm_source=BLOGS11&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Sterling Bay principal joining BDT Capital

John Gavin, who was instrumental in vaulting the developer from property turnaround artist to trophy tower investor, will run the real estate portfolio for Byron Trott's firm.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180529/CRED03/180529896/sterling-bay-principal-joining-bdt-capital?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Canadian investor buys Fulton Market buildings

The low-rise properties are on West Lake Street.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180529/CRED03/180529897/canadian-investor-buys-fulton-market-buildings?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

High-end Wheaton apartments up for sale

Invesco has hired a broker to sell a 306-unit property it acquired for nearly $96 million in 2015.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180529/CRED03/180529898/high-end-wheaton-apartments-up-for-sale?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Lawmakers pull back on Emanuel's carjacking bill

In a win for Preckwinkle and a loss for the mayor and police, the Illinois House signs off on a much weakened version of Emanuel's bill aimed at stopping a wave of carjackings.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180529/BLOGS02/180529899/lawmakers-pull-back-on-emanuels-carjacking-bill?utm_source=BLOGS02&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Is there a doctor on the plane? Increasingly, airlines hope not

A medical emergency sets in motion a high-altitude calculation with human lives in the balance. What happens when doctor's orders conflict with an airline's interests?

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180529/NEWS03/180529900/is-there-a-doctor-on-the-plane-increasingly-airlines-hope-not?utm_source=NEWS03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Ex-Pritzker VCs get $1 million for startup

4Degrees looks to connect the dots between contacts and calendar to help users quickly find the right people in their network.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180529/BLOGS11/180529902/ex-pritzker-vcs-get-1-million-for-startup?utm_source=BLOGS11&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

The doctors who hate insurance so much they go without it

Some health care professionals, fed up with the system, willingly pass on coverage: "I just don't want to pay them anymore."

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180529/NEWS03/180529903/the-doctors-who-hate-insurance-so-much-they-go-without-it?utm_source=NEWS03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

It costs $685 billion a year to subsidize U.S. health insurance

The amount will almost double over the next decade, CBO says, while 40 percent of spending goes toward maintaining Medicaid and CHIP.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180529/NEWS03/180529904/it-costs-685-billion-a-year-to-subsidize-u-s-health-insurance?utm_source=NEWS03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Chicago home price growth last among 20 cities

Despite that, the local increase was singled out as a positive signal for the nation.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180529/CRED0701/180529905/chicago-home-price-growth-last-among-20-cities?utm_source=CRED0701&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Gold Coast condo owners embroiled in water fight

A judge has temporarily blocked a Gold Coast condo tower from shutting off the water to the townhouses next door in a dispute stemming from its own lax bookkeeping.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180529/CRED0701/180529906/gold-coast-condo-owners-embroiled-in-water-fight?utm_source=CRED0701&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Our most-viewed real estate stories in the past week

Soaring property taxes and the death of the massive South Works plan make our list.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180529/CRED03/305299998/our-most-viewed-real-estate-stories-in-the-past-week?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Special report: The opioid treatment gap

The must-read stories to get your day started.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180529/MORNING10/305299999/special-report-the-opioid-treatment-gap?utm_source=MORNING10&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Chance, six others depart DuSable board in shakeup

The rapper and his father, along with physician, investor and Obama friend Eric Whitaker, have resigned from the South Side museum.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180526/NEWS07/180529983/chance-six-others-depart-dusable-board-in-shakeup?utm_source=NEWS07&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Fiat Chrysler recalls 4.8 million vehicles over cruise-control flaw

The action includes Jeep Cherokees built at the company's Belvidere assembly plant near Rockford.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180525/NEWS05/180529910/fiat-chrysler-recalls-4-8-million-vehicles-over-cruise-control-flaw?utm_source=NEWS05&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Glenview mansion sells for a record of almost $5 million

The price beat the north suburb's previous high by over $1.6 million.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180525/CRED0701/180529911/glenview-mansion-sells-for-a-record-of-almost-5-million?utm_source=CRED0701&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

ComEd bills are rising this summer—and more after that

ComEd's power price beginning in October will hit its highest level in more than five years despite wholesale energy costs that remain historically low.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180525/NEWS11/180529918/comed-bills-are-rising-this-summer-x2014-and-more-after-that?utm_source=NEWS11&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

2 drug startups to go public

With the IPO window open, Aptinyx and Iterum look to get out before it closes.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180525/BLOGS11/180529912/2-drug-startups-to-go-public?utm_source=BLOGS11&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Let's make it easier for people in jail and ex-offenders to cast a ballot. Here's why

Confusing laws are disenfranchising eligible Illinois voters who've been incarcerated, and some of them haven't even been convicted of a crime.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180525/OPINION/180529913/lets-make-it-easier-for-people-in-jail-and-ex-offenders-to-cast-a?utm_source=OPINION&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Massive plan to turn South Works into a neighborhood dies

The firm that envisioned buying and revamping the 440-acre lakefront steel mill site into a neighborhood of as many as 20,000 homes said today that it's walking away from its purchase agreement.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180524/CRED03/180529931/massive-plan-to-turn-south-works-into-a-neighborhood-dies?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Mall owners plan to fill space with hotels, apartments

Simon plans to open at least five Marriott International hotels at its properties over the next few years.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180524/CRED03/180529932/mall-owners-plan-to-fill-space-with-hotels-apartments?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Small tech firms keeping downtown landlords happy

The companies underscore how vital the sector has become for the market, which has been challenged by new inventory over the past couple years.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180524/CRED03/180529936/small-tech-firms-keeping-downtown-landlords-happy?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Home sales had biggest April in 11 years

Because of previous months' declines, total sales so far this year are behind 2017. Home prices made gains, but at a slower pace than in recent months.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180524/CRED0701/180529937/home-sales-had-biggest-april-in-11-years?utm_source=CRED0701&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

The Trump-Kim Summit That Wasn’t

In a surprise move this morning, the White House released a personal letter from the President canceling the upcoming summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un. A number of questions arise from this decision. However, the two biggest questions right now are where this leaves U.S.-North Korean relations right now, and where they might go from here.

The letter, clearly written by the President himself—or at least by someone masterfully aping his prose—suggests that North Korean rhetoric in recent weeks, as well as claims that it was the Trump administration, rather than the Kim regime, that sought talks, led to the cancellation. North Korean officials have been incensed in recent days by talk of a “Libya model” of nuclear disarmament, pushed both by National Security Advisor John Bolton and Vice President Mike Pence. The Qaddafi regime in Libya famously gave up a nuclear weapons program that was far less advanced than North Korea’s, only to see Libyan leader Moammar Qaddafi deposed and killed by NATO-backed rebels. That Bolton, a consistent advocate for regime change, suggested as much was not going to go unnoticed, and there was speculation that he was purposely trying to sabotage the talks.

Whatever the reason, it is probably for the best that the June 12th summit has been called off (at least for now). There is little evidence that the President was prepared for the negotiations, and abundant evidence that the two sides were never on the same page with regard to what the summit was supposed to achieve. As analysts have been noting since the summit was first announced, the Trump administration and Kim regime maintained very different definitions of the word “denuclearization.” If the goal of the summit was—as American officials continually insisted—Pyongyang’s “complete verifiable irreversible disarmament,” then the talks were likely doomed to fail. Given the President’s mercurial nature and the lack of advanced work by American diplomats, the likelihood of failure was high. A failed summit might have increased the chances of war if it hardened both sides’ positions.

Though it might be better that the summit is off for now, the question remains as to what happens next. A number of people are suggesting that, by walking away, Trump has created leverage with North Korea. And the President’s letter leaves an opening for re-engagement at the end. However, this idea assumes that the Kim regime is desperate for a deal. While that is possible, it seems unlikely. Even if Kim is that desperate, the process of re-engaging could lead to a dangerous new phase of bargaining.

Assuming that North Korea does badly want these talks, it will not want to be seen as a supplicant—that is, as crawling back to the table after the United States walked away. Such a situation would be problematic from a negotiating perspective and, more importantly, could damage the North Korean dictator’s standing at home. Instead, the regime will want to put itself back in a strong negotiating position. With the supposed demolition of the country’s nuclear test site, the most likely way to do that is by ending its pause on missile tests. President Trump, backed by his hawkish national security advisor, might resurrect his rhetoric about “fire and fury” in return—leading to spiraling hostility. The Kim regime could also detain some of the American reporters covering the planned demolition of the country’s nuclear test site as a bargaining chip—replacing the hostages it recently released in anticipation of the stillborn summit.

It is also possible—as is often the case in the U.S.-North Korean relations—that both sides continue to muddle through. As James Acton, an expert on nuclear weapons for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, notes on Twitter, if Pyongyang maintains its pause on nuclear and missile tests, the Trump administration might move on to deal with other issues on its agenda (of which it has many).

The best possible outcome, and also the least likely, is that the president’s gambit—assuming it is that—pays off, the Kim regime re-engages with the United States in a stronger negotiating position, and the standoff is settled peacefully and favorably for America and its allies. Far more dangerous is if this cancellation leads to a repeat of last year’s provocations, particularly now with an advocate for attacking North Korea like John Bolton serving as national security advisor. The most likely outcome may be that both sides continue to muddle through in the same way they have for decades. Given the costs of another war on the Korean Peninsula, perhaps that is the best anybody could hope for.

The post The Trump-Kim Summit That Wasn’t appeared first on Niskanen Center.

from nicholemhearn digest https://niskanencenter.org/blog/the-trump-kim-summit-that-wasnt/

See the biggest delinquent home tax bills that sold in Cook County

The top 10 ranged from about $$29,000 up to about $155,000.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180524/CRED0701/180529938/see-the-biggest-delinquent-home-tax-bills-that-sold-in-cook-county?utm_source=CRED0701&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Show us your office!

We're now accepting submissions for Crain's Coolest Offices 2018. Click here to apply.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.comhttps://crainschicago.secure-platform.com/a/page/coolestoffices/?utm_source=NEWS07&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Chicago population drops for third year in a row

The drop is small and parallels what's happening in suburbia. But look for the decline to become an issue in the city's mayoral race.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180524/BLOGS02/180529940/chicago-population-drops-for-third-year-in-a-row?utm_source=BLOGS02&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

A low-tech way to help ex-offenders rejoin society

The first 30 days after exiting prison or jail is the most vulnerable time for ex-offenders. Tiltas is pilot-testing a service to help these returning citizens make needed connections.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180524/ISSUE01/180529974/a-low-tech-way-to-help-ex-offenders-rejoin-society?utm_source=ISSUE01&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Chicago funders on gun violence: 'We do not have time to waste'

The city's top foundations are spending more than $40 million on strategies to reduce the bloodshed. The hope is these approaches, combined with policing, will cut homicides by 25 percent.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180524/OPINION/180529944/chicago-funders-on-gun-violence-we-do-not-have-time-to-waste?utm_source=OPINION&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Steve Dolinsky wants you to know Chicago is a great pizza town

The ABC7 food reporter visited 185 pizza restaurants in the Chicago area to select the best 101 in 10 distinct categories.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180524/ISSUE01/180529957/steve-dolinsky-wants-you-to-know-chicago-is-a-great-pizza-town?utm_source=ISSUE01&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

McDonald's, hit by #MeToo complaints, urged to tighten up harassment policy

“You are falling far short of your responsibility,” says an activist letter. “The people who work behind your cash registers, grills and fryers face rampant sexual harassment.”

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180523/NEWS07/180529951/mcdonalds-hit-by-metoo-complaints-urged-to-tighten-up-harassment?utm_source=NEWS07&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Madison Dearborn buys local moving company

Another Chicago company also has a hand in the deal, with billionaire Sam Zell's Equity Group Investments selling its stake in Oakbrook Terrace-based Sirva.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180523/NEWS01/180529952/madison-dearborn-buys-local-moving-company?utm_source=NEWS01&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Madison Dearborn buys Zell-owned local moving company

The Chicago-based private-equity firm is taking over a local moving company, Sirva, from Sam Zell's Equity Group Investments.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180523/NEWS01/180529952/madison-dearborn-buys-zell-owned-local-moving-company?utm_source=NEWS01&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Fulton Market groups oppose developer's 43-story tower

Related Midwest may have to go back to the drawing board after two West Loop community organizations criticized a proposed 495-foot condo tower as too tall.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180523/CRED03/180529955/fulton-market-groups-oppose-developers-43-story-tower?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

United's board faces long to-do list

The deliberations taking place this week in Chicago will shape the No. 3 U.S. carrier into the 2020s.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180523/NEWS10/180529956/uniteds-board-faces-long-to-do-list?utm_source=NEWS10&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Pete's Fresh Market owner lists mansion for $21.9 million

Jimmy Dremonas has been restoring the Romanesque mansion for eight years but never moved in. Only two homes in the area have ever been recorded selling for more than $20 million.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180523/CRED0701/180529959/petes-fresh-market-owner-lists-mansion-for-21-9-million?utm_source=CRED0701&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

How Labor Unions Impact Inequality – And Whether That Justifies the Legacy Costs They Leave

Unions recently took some hits in Republican states, but now teachers’ strikes are pushing back and winning. Can unions still be influential in Red America, when they are mostly in the public sector? And are they out to defend their own interests or to play a broader social role? Laura Bucci finds that despite declines, unions still help reduce inequality across states—through policy and the labor market. But Daniel DiSalvo finds public sector unions are also leaving states with burdensome legacy costs, with even Republicans capitulating. In both cases, labor unions are still influencing our politics and economy even after big declines in the private sector.

The Niskanen Center’s Political Research Digest features up-and-coming researchers delivering fresh insights on the big trends driving American politics today. Get beyond punditry to data-driven understanding of today’s Washington with host and political scientist Matt Grossmann. Each 15-minute episode covers two new cutting-edge studies and interviews two researchers.

Subscribe to the Political Research Digest Podcast

We'll send you a new episode every two weeks via email. Or you can subscribe on iTunes below.

• First Last
• Email

You can subscribe to the Political Research Digest on iTunes here.

The post How Labor Unions Impact Inequality – And Whether That Justifies the Legacy Costs They Leave appeared first on Niskanen Center.

from nicholemhearn digest https://niskanencenter.org/blog/how-labor-unions-impact-inequality-and-whether-that-justifies-the-legacy-costs-they-leave/

Wacker Drive office tower for sale

The owner is looking to cash out despite having higher vacancy in the building today than when it bought it three years ago.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180523/CRED03/180529966/wacker-drive-office-tower-for-sale?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Sleek in Streeterville

Take a photo tour of a 31st floor riverside condo that's a "tranquil haven in the city." It's for sale for $2.5 million.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180523/CRED0703/180529969/sleek-in-streeterville?utm_source=CRED0703&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Another 'new economy' battle hits Springfield—this time over cars

It's traditional car rental firms against upstart car-sharers in a battle with millions of dollars in tax revenue and future of the transportation business at stake.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180523/BLOGS02/180529967/another-new-economy-battle-hits-springfield-this-time-over-cars?utm_source=BLOGS02&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Are Chicago's homegrown business banks chum for out-of-town sharks?

For some, the sale of MB Financial to Fifth Third makes selling out a matter of when, not if, for locally based rivals Wintrust and First Midwest. Maybe not.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180523/NEWS01/180529968/are-chicagos-homegrown-business-banks-chum-for-out-of-town-sharks?utm_source=NEWS01&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Pritzker breaks with Mike Madigan as #MeToo flap deepens

The Democratic gubernatorial hopeful had been reluctant to be caught looking sideways at Madigan—much less actually criticizing him—until now.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180522/BLOGS02/180529975/pritzker-breaks-with-mike-madigan-as-metoo-flap-deepens?utm_source=BLOGS02&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Pritzker breaks with Mike Madigan as harassment flap deepens

The Democratic gubernatorial hopeful had been reluctant to be caught looking sideways at Madigan—much less actually criticizing him—until now.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180522/BLOGS02/180529975/pritzker-breaks-with-mike-madigan-as-harassment-flap-deepens?utm_source=BLOGS02&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

South Loop apartment tower selling for $90 million-plus

Horizon Realty Group is buying the 30-story, 344-unit tower at 1212 S. Michigan from Crescent Heights.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180522/CRED03/180529977/south-loop-apartment-tower-selling-for-90-million-plus?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Whole Foods deal about more than groceries for Amazon

“Food is the platform for selling you everything else,” a former Whole Foods co-CEO says.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180522/CRED03/180529978/whole-foods-deal-about-more-than-groceries-for-amazon?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

New York investor looks to cash out on Schaumburg offices

Sovereign Partners is seeking around $60 million for a pair of office buildings near Woodfield Mall, which would be a healthy payday for the firm.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180522/CRED03/180529980/new-york-investor-looks-to-cash-out-on-schaumburg-offices?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

First Midwest closing 19 branches, cutting 100-plus jobs

The Chicago bank said more consumer reliance on remote banking services prompted the decision.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180522/NEWS01/180529981/first-midwest-closing-19-branches-cutting-100-plus-jobs?utm_source=NEWS01&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

AbbVie to donate $100 million to help storm-ravaged Puerto Rico

The North Chicago company has a manufacturing facility in Puerto Rico and has operated there for nearly 50 years.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180522/NEWS03/180529982/abbvie-to-donate-100-million-to-help-storm-ravaged-puerto-rico?utm_source=NEWS03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Buck, Golub land major tenant in San Francisco

Facebook has reached a deal to lease an entire tower there that the two Chicago firms are developing with an arm of MetLife.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180522/CRED03/180529984/buck-golub-land-major-tenant-in-san-francisco?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

As families struggle to get behavioral health coverage, enforcement of parity laws lags

In the midst of a national epidemic of drug addiction and overdose deaths, many families report similar battles with insurers in getting coverage.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.modernhealthcare.com/article/20180519/NEWS/180519900/as-families-struggle-to-get-behavioral-health-coverage-enforcement?utm_source=NEWS03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Somebody just paid $5.8 million to be Chance the Rapper's neighbor

It's another big-ticket sale in a year that's been hot.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180522/CRED0701/180529986/somebody-just-paid-5-8-million-to-be-chance-the-rappers-neighbor?utm_source=CRED0701&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Want to stop carjacking? Invest in poor neighborhoods

The legislation in Springfield will direct more money toward incarcerating young people without making Chicago safer.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180522/OPINION/180529987/want-to-stop-carjacking-invest-in-poor-neighborhoods?utm_source=OPINION&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Property tax assessments soar on North Side

Some homeowners say Cook County's estimates of home values have grown by considerably more—in some cases, as much as 50 percent—than the real estate market is telling them.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180522/CRED0701/180529988/property-tax-assessments-soar-on-north-side?utm_source=CRED0701&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Emanuel moves to build support for Obama Center

With a City Council vote possible this week, the mayor asks his supporters to weigh in on behalf of the Jackson Park project.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180521/BLOGS02/180529990/emanuel-moves-to-build-support-for-obama-center?utm_source=BLOGS02&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

In landlord's market, downtown apartment rents hit new high

A new report shows the market is not as overbuilt as many landlords had feared. But they could lose some leverage over the summer, as 2,000 new apartments hit the market.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180521/CRED02/180529991/in-landlords-market-downtown-apartment-rents-hit-new-high?utm_source=CRED02&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

These are the most vulnerable malls

A few top properties will survive the current struggles, while lower-quality malls in markets with smaller populations and lower incomes will continue to close, says one industry observer.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180521/CRED03/180529993/these-are-the-most-vulnerable-malls?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Google getting a new neighbor in Fulton Market

A Chicago construction firm is set to begin work on a five-story boutique office building across the street from the search giant's Midwest headquarters.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180521/CRED03/180529994/google-getting-a-new-neighbor-in-fulton-market?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Three More Reasons to be Cautious About a National Job Guarantee

The idea of a national job guarantee (JG) is about to go mainstream. The concept is far from new, but for the first time in decades, it is being endorsed by politicians with national stature. Sen. Bernie Sanders has promised to submit a legislative proposal. Other Democratic presidential hopefuls are showing interest. Academics, including Levy Economic Institute’s L. Randall Wray and Pavlina Tcherneva, have provided detailed blueprints for a national JG program.

No one denies that it would be nice if everyone who wanted to work could find a job, but before we start to beat the drum for a full-bore national job guarantee, we need a reality check. Writing recently in this space, Samuel Hammond outlined three reasons to be skeptical:

1.     The private sector is better at allocating labor than public bureaucracies.
2.     A JG program would be too easily politicized.
3.     Other active labor-market policies, including wage subsidies, would work better than a JG.

These are valid points. Let me add three more reasons to be cautious about a national job guarantee.

4. Don’t exaggerate the pool of eligible candidates

As of April 2018, some 6 million people were officially unemployed, that is, counted as not working but actively looking for work. However, not all of those would be candidates for public-service jobs. Both in good times and bad, many of the unemployed are merely on temporary layoff or engaged in short spells of unemployment between jobs. At present, 33 percent of unemployed workers have been out of work for 5 weeks or less and another 31 percent for 5 to 14 weeks. Even in a bad year like 2010, nearly 40 percent of the unemployed were out of work for 14 weeks or less. Providing short-term in-and-out jobs for the temporarily unemployed is not the purpose of a JG. Even if offered such jobs, most of the short-term unemployed would probably prefer to keep looking for something more suited to their skills and interests.

But the officially unemployed are not the only targets of a job guarantee. Advocates claim there is a huge pool of other potential candidates who, for one reason or another, are not actively participating in the labor force, but might be drawn into it. As evidence, they point out that the employed share of the population has been falling since the beginning of the century, after a 50-year upward trend. As the following chart shows, that pattern holds both for the adult population as a whole and for prime-aged workers.

Yet the pool of potential workers is not really as large as it seems. Of the 95 million adults who were not in the labor force as of April 2018, only 5 million said they wanted a job now. Many of the rest were retired, in school, or medically incapacitated. Others were financially secure due to savings or earnings of other family members and preferred to spend their time  on activities other than paid work.

The 5 million who were out of the labor force but said they did want a job cited various reasons for not working, many of which would make it hard to draw them into public-service jobs. Based on annual data for 2017, 20 percent of them reported that school, family responsibilities, ill health, lack of transportation or other reasons kept them from looking for jobs. Only 9 percent reported that their reasons for not job-hunting were discouragement about the availability of work, fear that private employers would discriminate against them, or similar reasons. In some cases, these barriers to work could be overcome by a JG program that offered extensive support services, but it would be unrealistic to think that all 5 million could easily be slotted into public-service jobs.

Realistically, a JG program might absorb half of the long-term unemployed and half of those who want a job but are not currently in the labor force — fewer than 4 million people, of whom 3 million or so might come from the prime-age group. That would raise the share of the prime-age population who are employed to about 62 percent from its current level of 60.3, leaving it still well below peak rates of the past.

Some JG proponents envision a much larger program. Wray’s version aims for as many as 15 million public-service jobs. Except during periods of deep recession, however, a JG program could achieve that size only by offering wage and benefit premiums high enough to draw in millions of workers from the private sector. Doing so would do nothing to raise the employment-population ratio.

5. Don’t underestimate administrative costs

Critics of job guarantees worry about potentially high administrative costs. JG proponent Wray brushes that problem aside, urging that “federal spending should not subsidize administrative expenses.” However, the experience of other federal programs suggests that skimping on administrative support would sharply reduce the chances that a JG program would reach its goals.

For example, consider programs that attempt to increase employment by means of work requirements. Work requirements use a stick to move people into the labor force, rather than the carrot used by JG, but despite that difference, their target demographic is the same:  people who are able to work but are currently jobless.

The welfare reforms of the 1990s remain the largest and best-studied example of the effects of work requirements. At the time they were implemented, researchers conducted rigorous controlled experiments to measure how variations in program design influenced effectiveness. Each experiment compared the employment experience of a group of welfare recipients subject to work requirements to that of a group who received the same welfare benefits without the work requirements. Findings were published in 2001 in a document called National Evaluation of Welfare-to-Work Strategies (NEWWS). (For a summary, see my article for Milken Institute Review earlier this year.)

The experiments found that work requirements had a surprisingly small effect on employment. In one of the most successful trials, in Portland, OR, the number of welfare recipients who worked during at least one calendar quarter of the 20 quarters of the experiment rose to 85.7 in the group subject to work requirements compared to 81.5 in the control group. In the least successful experiment, in Oklahoma City, the number who worked in the group facing work requirements was actually lower than in the control group. In five of eleven experiments, the difference was statistically insignificant.

One key take-away from the experiments of the 1990s, and from more recent experience with work requirements for food stamps, is that there are no bright lines between “unwilling to work,” “willing and able to work but not working,” and “unable to work.” Many willing welfare recipients face practical barriers to work, such as child care or lack of transportation. Other barriers to work include physical or mental health problems that fall short of full disability; emotional issues; criminal records; substance abuse; and low skills.

With or without work requirements, people with such problems tend to move in and out of work frequently, even when jobs are available. They do not move through welfare-to-work programs in a simple, linear fashion, from unemployed to trainee to permanent job holder. Frequent failures and backsliding undermine the best-intentioned policies.

Another thing the experiments of the 1990s made clear was that success requires adequately funded administrative support and well-trained staff. The best results were obtained when case workers and other administrators did more than simply monitor eligibility, participation, and compliance with program rules. Instead, they needed to be proactive and to stress self-sufficiency. However, such efforts come at a cost. Results were disappointing in cities like Oklahoma City and Detroit where administrative support was underfunded.

Today’s nonworking population faces the same spectrum of barriers to employment that prevailed in the 1990s. Any realistic JG program would have to deliver the support people need to arrange child care or elder care, transportation, and the like. Such a program would need to create jobs where people can contribute productively despite difficulty walking, back pain, poor vision, headaches, and other health problems. Its administrators would need to work one-on-one with job candidates who suffer from anxiety, depression, substance abuse, violent domestic situations, and other problems that make it hard even to show up for work each day, let alone perform on the job. None of these barriers is insurmountable, but they cannot be overcome on the cheap.

6. Beware of illusory additions to GDP

Optimists contend that a JG program would provide a huge boost to the economy. For example, Wray estimates that a national job guarantee with 15 million participants would add $560 billion dollars to GDP, about 3 percent, with little impact on inflation. But, even if he is right about the numbers, how much of the measured addition to GDP would represent a real increase in the economy’s output of goods and services?

It would be easier to know if, for example, the JG workers were put to work sewing shirts. Their output would then be measured by multiplying the number of shirts times the price at which they were sold. If that came up to $560 billion, you would have added an honest increment to GDP. If customers didn’t like the shirts, or too many were produced, their price would fall and the factory’s contribution to GDP would decrease accordingly.

However, JG advocates don’t have clothing factories in mind. Instead, almost all JG participants would be given public-service jobs. For example, in her working paper for the Levy Economics Institute, Tcherneva describes what she calls a “National Care Act.” The jobs it created would focus on three areas:

• Care for the environment, including soil-erosion- and flood-control; environmental surveys; species monitoring; park maintenance; removal of invasive species; support for local fisheries; community supported agriculture (CSA) farms; rooftop gardens; tree planting; fire- and other disaster-prevention measures; weatherization of homes; and composting.
• Care for the community, including cleanup of vacant properties; reclamation of materials; restoration of public spaces; establishment of school gardens; solar arrays; tool-lending libraries; community theaters; restoration of historical sites; organization of carpooling programs; recycling; water-collection initiatives; food waste programs; and oral history projects.
• Care for people, including elderly care; after-school programs; programs for children, new mothers, at-risk youth, veterans, former inmates, and people with disabilities; organizing after-school activities in schools or local libraries; shadowing teachers, coaches, hospice workers and librarians to learn new skills and assist them in their duties; organizing nutrition surveys in schools; and coordinating health-awareness programs for young mothers.

All of these are worthy activities. Millions of public employees and volunteers engage in them every day. But how can we measure their contribution to GDP when we can’t put dollar value on removal of invasive species or accurately measure the quantity and quality of output of an oral history project?

The answer is that national-income accountants don’t even try to measure the output of public-service workers. Instead, they measure the cost of their contributions to GDP by adding up the costs of the labor and other inputs that go into producing the services. If city workers are assigned to composting food waste from school cafeterias, their contribution to GDP is measured by the salary they are paid. It does not matter whether the compost turns out to be useless, or whether it turns out to be black gold that enormously boosts the output of lettuce in a community vegetable garden.

Following standard accounting procedures, then, paying each of 15 million people $30,000 per year to perform tasks from Tcherneva’s list would produce a $450 billion bump to GDP regardless of the value of the services the workers produced.

Accounting by cost rather than output greatly increases the possibility of overstatement of a JG program’s contribution to GDP. To see why, let’s return to the example of the shirt factory. Suppose a private shirt factory has 10 workers who produce $300,000 worth of shirts a year. The owners then decide to hire another worker, at $30,000 a year, to run a day care center for workers’ children. If lower absenteeism and better employee morale increase productivity, extra shirts are produced, and the factory’s contribution to GDP goes up. If the day care experiment fails, and no extra shirts are produced, the factory’s contribution to GDP does not change and the cost of the day care project comes out of profits.

In contrast, if a community arts group employs 10 JG workers at $30,000 a year, its contribution to GDP would be measured as $300,000. If the arts group adds an eleventh worker to take care of the children of the first 10, its measured contribution to GDP goes up by $30,000, even if the amount of art the group produces is unchanged. If it adds a twelfth employee for administrative duties, its contribution to GDP goes up again, whether or not it produces more or better art.

The likelihood of exaggeration is even greater if we consider that some of the services that would be produced by a JG program are already being produced, but not for pay, by the same people that the program would employ. For example, we noted earlier that many of those who are out of the labor force, but want a job, are unavailable for work because they are caregivers for children or other family members. Imagine two parents, in two separate households. Each parent has been staying home to care for two young children. If a JG program hires one of them at $30,000 a year to work in a community tool-lending library, and hires the other as a day care worker to care for all four children, the measured amount of new GDP produced will be $60,000. However, the only new services produced are those of the tool-lending library. The day care services were already being produced by the parents themselves, but not for pay.

Child care services are not the only example. The United States has a vast volunteer sector. A Bureau of Labor Statistics report on Volunteering in America indicates that more than 62 million people aged 16 and older participated in volunteer work in 2015. Of those, 5.9 percent each spent more than 500 hours a year volunteering — a vast amount of work. Much of that was spent on exactly the kind jobs that would be targeted by JG programs. In some cases, people who are now out of the labor force and volunteer as wildlife monitors would happily take paid jobs as JG wildlife monitors. In other cases, people who are already employed but volunteer on weekends would find they are no longer needed to pick up trash in the local park, since a JG worker is already doing the job. They would go jogging, instead. Any way you look at it, at least part of the work done by JG participants would displace something already being done by volunteers. The program’s addition to GDP would, to that extent, be illusory.

Caution is the bottom line

I do not mean to be completely dismissive about public-service jobs. Volunteers are great, but they are not always enough to monitor water quality or maintain historical sites. The idea that local governments should keep a list of “shovel-ready” jobs in reserve to serve as fiscal stimulus in hard times is nothing new. But a full-scale national job guarantee — one that employs tens of millions during downturns and does not go to zero even in the best of times — is something else again.

The bottom line is that a national job guarantee sounds great until you actually think about it. When you do the numbers, you find out that many of the people you want most to help are not good candidates for public-service jobs. When you look at past efforts, you see that welfare-to-work programs of any kind are unlikely to succeed without expensive investments in staffing and administration. And when you do the accounting, you find that many of the supposed benefits of putting millions of people to work in new public-service jobs are illusory.

In short, we should think twice, three times, or more before we let ourselves get carried away with enthusiasm for a national job guarantee. Meanwhile, we are far from exhausting the alternatives to JG. Based on international best practices, we could do more with job placement, training, and other active labor-market policies. We could reform and consolidate existing anti-poverty programs in order to reduce disincentives to work. We could make tax policy more work-friendly by expanding earned income tax credits and easing regressive payroll taxes. And we could recognize that cash assistance makes more sense than make-work jobs for many who need help most.

The post Three More Reasons to be Cautious About a National Job Guarantee appeared first on Niskanen Center.

from nicholemhearn digest https://niskanencenter.org/blog/three-more-reasons-to-be-cautious-about-a-national-job-guarantee/

GE's $11 billion rail deal

In an effort to revitalize the beleaguered manufacturer, GE will merge its century-old locomotive business with Wabtec and put the combined companies here.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180521/NEWS05/180529996/ges-11-billion-rail-deal?utm_source=NEWS05&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Cook County property values still lag

A new Civic Federation study finds that while Chicago proper is close to passing its pre-recession level, Cook County as a whole is still $100 billion short, with the south and southwest suburbs particularly weak.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180521/BLOGS02/180529999/cook-county-property-values-still-lag?utm_source=BLOGS02&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Cook County property values still underwater

A new Civic Federation study finds that while Chicago proper is close to passing its pre-recession level, Cook County as a whole is still $100 billion short, with the south and southwest suburbs particularly weak.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180521/BLOGS02/180529999/cook-county-property-values-still-underwater?utm_source=BLOGS02&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Fifth Third to buy MB Financial

The companies announced the deal this morning.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180521/NEWS01/180529997/fifth-third-to-buy-mb-financial?utm_source=NEWS01&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180521/NEWS01/180529998?utm_source=NEWS01&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

A tougher carjacking law is about crime, not race, says police chief

Superintendent Eddie Johnson, wading into a fight between Mayor Emanuel and President Preckwinkle, says he wants to "send a message," not "lock up more black and brown people."

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180518/BLOGS02/180519845/a-tougher-carjacking-law-is-about-crime-not-race-says-police-chief?utm_source=BLOGS02&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

This Kenwood home is old. And the art in the backyard is ancient.

See what the buyers of this 123-year-old Victorian liked about the 3,000-year-old stones they were surprised to find out back.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180518/CRED0701/180519847/this-kenwood-home-is-old-and-the-art-in-the-backyard-is-ancient?utm_source=CRED0701&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Mansueto set to buy stake in Wrigley Building

The billionaire Morningstar founder has agreed to acquire an ownership stake in the landmark Mag Mile towers in a deal involving some of the city's wealthiest execs.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180518/CRED03/180519848/mansueto-set-to-buy-stake-in-wrigley-building?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Chicago's HQ2 bid and the Trump effect

With signs that we and the D.C. area will make the HQ2 shortlist, how will the president impact the process?

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180518/BLOGS02/180519850/chicagos-hq2-bid-and-the-trump-effect?utm_source=BLOGS02&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

And now, breakfast at power-lunch spot RL

Plus, a popular all-day restaurant from New York is coming to town, and Michael Jordan's Steak House will serve its menu on Eno's patio.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180518/BLOGS09/180519852/and-now-breakfast-at-power-lunch-spot-rl?utm_source=BLOGS09&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

This is America's hottest job

Job postings for data scientists rose 75 percent from January 2015 to January 2018 at Indeed.com, while job searches for data scientist roles rose 65 percent.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180518/NEWS08/180519854/this-is-americas-hottest-job?utm_source=NEWS08&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Who paid a fortune for that McCormick Place painting?

A famous record producer spent $21.1 million for the monumental canvas.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180518/NEWS07/180519857/who-paid-a-fortune-for-that-mccormick-place-painting?utm_source=NEWS07&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Chicago schools double bond sale as rates head higher

The Chicago Board of Education increased it to $561 million amid signs of strong demand for the junk-rated district’s high-yielding securities.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180518/NEWS02/180519859/chicago-schools-double-bond-sale-as-rates-head-higher?utm_source=NEWS02&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Emanuel re-election advice from an unusual source: Victor Reyes

Daley's former consiglieri says the Latino vote is key to next year's mayoral election and lays out how Emanuel can reel it in.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180518/BLOGS02/180519862/emanuel-re-election-advice-from-an-unusual-source-victor-reyes?utm_source=BLOGS02&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Listen to shareholders, Mondelez, and reduce exec comp

Mondelez International investors spoke loud and clear at the company's annual meeting: They want executive pay reduced. The company should heed their advice.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180518/BLOGS10/180519865/listen-to-shareholders-mondelez-and-reduce-exec-comp?utm_source=BLOGS10&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Online lender Avant looks to grow again

The Chicago-based consumer lender made the fewest loans since its inception last year as it reworked its lending model. Now it looks to scale up after encouraging results.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180518/NEWS01/180519863/online-lender-avant-looks-to-grow-again?utm_source=NEWS01&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Booze-ordering software startup raises $3.5 million

Provi is trying to bring bars and liquor distributors into the e-commerce era and open their eyes to Big Data.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180517/BLOGS11/180519867/booze-ordering-software-startup-raises-3-5-million?utm_source=BLOGS11&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Final Bon-Ton bankruptcy toll: More than 3,500 Illinois jobs

In addition to spiking mall vacancies, the move by Carson's parent eliminates thousands of hourly jobs across 35 stores and two distribution centers.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180517/EMPLOYMENT/180519869/final-bon-ton-bankruptcy-toll-more-than-3500-illinois-jobs?utm_source=EMPLOYMENT&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Preckwinkle blasts Emanuel on volatile carjacking issue

As Chicago's crime problem becomes a major election topic, the Cook County Board president is attacking his effort to curb carjackings. Why?

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180517/BLOGS02/180519872/preckwinkle-blasts-emanuel-on-volatile-carjacking-issue?utm_source=BLOGS02&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Ken Griffin now has largest estate in Palm Beach

With his latest $20 million purchase, the hedge fund billionaire owns 17 acres with 871 feet of beachfront, most about a quarter mile from Mar-A-Lago.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180517/CRED0701/180519874/ken-griffin-now-has-largest-estate-in-palm-beach?utm_source=CRED0701&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Insurers figured out how to make a profit from Obamacare last year

The secret? Raising their prices.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180517/NEWS03/180519877/insurers-figured-out-how-to-make-a-profit-from-obamacare-last-year?utm_source=NEWS03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

2 city Sears stores to be redeveloped

The stores are at 1601 N. Harlem Ave. and 4730 W. Irving Park Road.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180517/CRED03/180519880/2-city-sears-stores-to-be-redeveloped?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Want that Bank of England gig? UChicago's Rajan says no

“I have a very good job at the University of Chicago, and I am actually an academic, not a professional central banker. So I'm very happy where I am.”

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180517/NEWS01/180519882/want-that-bank-of-england-gig-uchicagos-rajan-says-no?utm_source=NEWS01&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

E-commerce deal by Mariano's parent seen as warning shot in e-commerce battle

Kroger is showing some fight. Will it be enough to fend off Amazon and Walmart?

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180517/NEWS07/180519881/e-commerce-deal-by-marianos-parent-seen-as-warning-shot-in-e?utm_source=NEWS07&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

MPEA made a fortune selling this painting

The agency that runs Navy Pier sold "Past Times" by Kerry James Marshall for $21.1 million at a Sotheby's auction yesterday—about 900 times what it paid for the canvas.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180517/NEWS07/180519888/mpea-made-a-fortune-selling-this-painting?utm_source=NEWS07&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Jennifer Pritzker divesting North Shore mansions

Selling four houses in Evanston and Winnetka—two are currently B&Bs—is "part of a restructuring of the hospitality division" of Pritzker's Tawani Enterprises.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180517/CRED0701/180519890/jennifer-pritzker-divesting-north-shore-mansions?utm_source=CRED0701&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Immigration Policy Brief Series Update

Immigration law and policy continues to rapidly change under President Donald Trump’s administration. Legal challenges to Executive branch and Department of Justice immigration policies monopolize the spotlight now, but that will not always be the case.

Historically, legislation has the most permanent and influential impact on immigration policy in the United States. Thus, it is critical that changes to existing immigration legislation are pragmatic and thoughtful, and that new immigration laws better reflect the needs of the United States.

To that end, the Niskanen Center Immigration Department is excited to announce a new series of policy briefs that tackle a number of immigration issues requiring reform, including:

• Entrepreneurial (startup) visas
• CONRAD 30 program
• Fourth and Fifth Amendment Rights and the Border
• Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) Enforcement (New!)
• EB-5 program
• Refugees
• Asylees (New!)
• Foreign students
• H-2A visa reform
• Diversity visas
• H-4 visas (New!)

Each short policy brief summarizes the need for change, discuss existing law and policy, and provide a list of improvements and considerations for each reform issue. As we roll out each new brief, look for a link on this page.

Ideally, this series will help spark deliberative discussions about how to reform immigration policy, and will result in laws that provide for a more efficient, effective, and economically and socially prosperous immigration system.

The post Immigration Policy Brief Series Update appeared first on Niskanen Center.

from nicholemhearn digest https://niskanencenter.org/blog/rollout-new-immigration-policy-brief-series/

Sterling Bay, Live Nation planning North Side entertainment venues

The 70-acre Lincoln Yards along the North Branch of the Chicago River would feature as many as five entertainment venues built in conjunction with the concert giant.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180517/CRED03/180519889/sterling-bay-live-nation-planning-north-side-entertainment-venues?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

To save the state, Illinois needs to amend its constitution

A state teetering on the brink of financial collapse needs maximum fiscal flexibility. And that means we have to eliminate constitutional barriers to sound budgetary practices.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180517/ISSUE10/180519892/to-save-the-state-illinois-needs-to-amend-its-constitution?utm_source=ISSUE10&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

The queen of cannabis candies

Mindy Segal, who long ago made a name for herself as a Chicago chef, is becoming as acclaimed in the medical marijuana trade. She just launched a second line of edibles.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180517/ISSUE01/180519917/the-queen-of-cannabis-candies?utm_source=ISSUE01&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Most banks are afraid to close branches. Meet the local one that isn't

Chicago-based Byline Bank is shuttering another eight locations, bringing a local network of 90 just a few years ago down to 52.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180516/NEWS07/180519896/most-banks-are-afraid-to-close-branches-meet-the-local-one-that-isnt?utm_source=NEWS07&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Another cryptocurrency biz muscles up in Chicago

A new cryptocurrency company based in Virginia Beach is rounding up Chicago talent to lead operations from the Windy City.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180516/NEWS01/180519899/another-cryptocurrency-biz-muscles-up-in-chicago?utm_source=NEWS01&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

What We Talk About When We Talk About Sanctuary Cities

President Donald Trump is a wizard capable of conjuring a widespread sense of resentment and distrust by relentlessly repeating the same lie, and then using the mass delusion he has spoken into existence as a cudgel with which to hammer the credibility of anyone who denies it. Trump’s remorseless slander of “sanctuary cities” and those who support them is a powerful example of this dark, demagogic art.  

“Sanctuary cities and states like California,” Mr. Trump said in an April White House law enforcement roundtable, “put innocent Americans at the mercy of hardened criminals, hardened murderers …” That sounds pretty bad! What might explain such egregious contempt for public safety? Well, Trump would like you to think that “the Democrats’ priority is to protect criminals, not to do what’s right for our country.” For his part, the president suggests that his honorable aim, unlike the treacherous Democrats’, is “to serve, protect, and defend the citizens of the United States.”

California’s sanctuary policies are illegal and unconstitutional and put the safety and security of our entire nation at risk. Thousands of dangerous & violent criminal aliens are released as a result of sanctuary policies, set free to prey on innocent Americans. THIS MUST STOP!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 13, 2018

The War on Sanctuary Cities Is Meant to Undermine the Legitimacy of the Opposition Party  

What’s actually going on here is not so hard  to see. The point of the president’s indefatigable mendacity about sanctuary cities is to propagate the lie that the first concern of the opposition party is the unhindered freedom of foreign machete rapists, not the welfare of Americans. The immediate implication of this is that Democratic politicians are traitors who imperil the safety of “real” Americans—the ones who don’t live in sanctuary cities. It hardly needs to be said that a politician or party in the business of treasonously selling out “the people” has no moral right to govern. So Trump doesn’t exactly say it. He just incessantly suggests it

Ralph Northam,who is running for Governor of Virginia,is fighting for the violent MS-13 killer gangs & sanctuary cities.  Vote Ed Gillespie!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 6, 2017

Trump knows that his followers will infer the rest. And they do. For example:

USA is at tipping point. Trump & Sleepy Sessions must make an example of sanctuary politician or we are going to lose the nation. I suggest arresting Oakland mayor: Predawn raid, seize all electronic devices, book & print her for obstruction & conspiracy. https://t.co/lxuItpHM39

— Michael R Shannon (@ReluctantUser2) May 11, 2018

Trump puts America First
-Cut illegal border crossings by 40%
-Sent Nat. Guard to secure border
-Fights to end sanctuary cities

Jerry Brown puts America Last
-Increases illegal immigration
-Restricts Nat. Guard at border
-Gives sanctuary to criminals

Arrest Governor Brown#MAGA

—

Au revoir, Bistrot Zinc!

The classic French spot

Bad news for retail landlords: Local sales 'pretty anemic' in 2017

Department stores continued to struggle, but bars and restaurants were a bright spot.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180516/CRED03/180519902/bad-news-for-retail-landlords-local-sales-pretty-anemic-in-2017?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Local retail sales 'pretty anemic' in 2017

Department stores continued to struggle, but bars and restaurants were a bright spot.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180516/CRED03/180519902/local-retail-sales-pretty-anemic-in-2017?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Naperville mayor and brother tied to senior housing plan

Mayor Steve Chirico calls himself an “absentee” member of the company that's seeking a zoning change to create a housing complex in the west suburb.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180516/CRED03/180519904/naperville-mayor-and-brother-tied-to-senior-housing-plan?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Hedge fund chief lists Lincoln Park house for near $5.3 million

Dmitry Balyasny bought the 7,000-square-foot home in 2011 from news anchor Diann Burns and her husband, Marc Watts.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180516/CRED0701/180519908/hedge-fund-chief-lists-lincoln-park-house-for-near-5-3-million?utm_source=CRED0701&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Landmark Loop tower up for sale

Just more than two years after buying a vintage art deco office building in the heart of the Loop, a group of local investors are looking to cash out for a hefty profit.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180516/CRED03/180519909/landmark-loop-tower-up-for-sale?utm_source=CRED03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Illinois GOP finally takes unity step

In a late-night deal, Gov. Bruce Rauner's hand-picked state chair agrees to share power with a close Jeanne Ives ally. Will it work?

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180516/BLOGS02/180519910/illinois-gop-finally-takes-unity-step?utm_source=BLOGS02&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Advocate, NorthShore partner to expand pediatric care in Chicago area

The move comes a year after the two systems walked away from a merger after federal officials raised antitrust concerns.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180516/NEWS03/180519911/advocate-northshore-partner-to-expand-pediatric-care-in-chicago-area?utm_source=NEWS03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Advocate, NorthShore partner on pediatric care

The move comes a year after the two systems walked away from a merger after federal officials raised antitrust concerns.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180516/NEWS03/180519911/advocate-northshore-partner-on-pediatric-care?utm_source=NEWS03&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

California style in Hinsdale

For his home on Quincy Street, for sale for $2.1 million, former Blackhawk Steve Smith created a California-inspired indoor-outdoor room with folding glass doors.

from nicholemhearn digest http://www.chicagobusiness.com/realestate/20180516/CRED0701/180519918/california-style-in-hinsdale?utm_source=CRED0701&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Report: The Growing Partisan Divide on the Environment

In a new report published today by the Niskanen Center, political scientist David Karol analyzes how environmental issues have become increasingly partisan in American politics, and explores what might shift the debate on environmental issues—and climate specifically—into more productive territory. There are lessons here for anyone looking to affect climate policy on the right side of the aisle.

Before we can think about how to shift the lines of partisan battle, it is helpful to understand how the lines were drawn in the first place. Using scorecards from the League of Conservation Voters, Karol shows the stark difference between the mid-20th century (when modern environmentalism entered politics) and today. Forty-eight years ago, environmental scores were pretty evenly distributed in the House and the Senate. Today, the Congress is split into pro- and anti-environmental blocks comprised almost exclusively of Democrats (pro) and Republicans (anti). The near complete division in the 114th Congress is surprisingly stark.

Karol’s paper dives deeper into how that divergence grew steadily over time. The short story is that there was no event that dramatically shifted environmental stances between one Congress and the next. Instead, members of Congress were steadily sorted into pro- and anti-environmental stances along party lines, with declining influence from external factors like local constituencies and economic interests, party geography, and the personal backgrounds of the members themselves.

Karol explains that as politicians took increasingly partisan stances on the environment, their coalitional allies and voters took partisan queues and created more extreme positions.

Organized interests have become polarized as well. Endorsements and campaign contributions from environmental groups now overwhelmingly go to Democratic candidates, while economic sectors frequently at odds with environmentalists, including fossil fuel producers and much of agribusiness, increasingly support Republicans. Divisions between Republican and Democratic voters on the environment, while not as great as among political elites, have grown as well.

In the second part, Karol examines what might arrest or reverse the increasing partisanship around environmental issues, particularly on climate change. The key insight is that the solid coalitional dynamics that have created the decades-long partisan division are probably robust to some big external new threat. Even if a new issue of great salience were to arrive, it would need to be obliquely related to climate to break up today’s political allegiances and re-sort political stances on climate (or the environment generally).

The implication is that no impending storm (another Harvey, Sandy, or Katrina) will be what breaks partisanship on climate. Likewise, no unique framing of climate risk in terms of economic costs, national security, or public health will suddenly rearrange American political coalitions. The weight of these coalitions is too great for them to be disturbed.

Instead, change may come about by shifting the lines of partisan battle, in response to the demographic and industry trends shifting underneath Republicans’ feet. Karol goes through a familiar set of factors that might soften Republican opinion on climate and create space for political opportunity. Among them are the familiar idea that young voters are much more comfortable with environmental protection than older generations, and that while the size and scope of the fossil fuel industry recedes, the renewables industry is growing in Republican districts and increasing its political activity.

As long as political costs remain low, very little is likely to change. But given enough pressure, the same coalitional strength that holds members of Congress to partisan stances today could help them maintain the same coalitional allies while adopting reform positions in the future. That is because political coalitions are mutually binding.

Karol explains that “provided they keep some distance between themselves and the other party on the issue, elected officials can move significantly in substantive policy terms.” And in doing so, they won’t necessarily lose their coalitional allies because there might not be anywhere else to go. As Karol argues, as parties shift stances “[a] lobby often has the choice between unhappily supporting ‘their’ party, and abstaining or supporting a minor candidate—risking the election of those less favorable to their views.”

The last section of the paper looks at how recent signals in the House of Representatives might be revealing how the tectonic plates are shifting under Republicans’ feet. Savvy—or vulnerable—members will sense opportunity earlier, and move to establish recognition as leaders on the issue and drum up positive media attention. The rapid growth of the bipartisan climate solutions caucus is a key indicator that there is a desire to do just that.

Anticipating such a shift, some Republicans may take forward positions on environmental issues to gather a reputation for issue leadership and distinguishing media attention. The growth in the number of Republican members of the bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus in the House of Representatives may indicate that Members of Congress are taking such enterprising actions. So while environmental groups allege that the the Climate Solutions Caucus is an advanced exercise in greenwashing because of its lack of immediate policy results, its long-term effects may very well create lasting champions.

The chief goal of climate advocates working on the Republican side of the aisle is to make sure that those politicians who are willing to take leading stances have smart policy proposals that they can use to amplify those shifting coalitional trends, distinguish themselves from Democrats, and create political opportunities for themselves. Without good ideas, those folks taking leadership stances are more likely to fizzle out than provide a beacon for their colleagues and coalition—which would then leave us with the status quo.

 

The post Report: The Growing Partisan Divide on the Environment appeared first on Niskanen Center.

from nicholemhearn digest https://niskanencenter.org/blog/report-the-growing-partisan-divide-on-the-environment/